The Pige gets played

Former Japan souridaijin ("Prime Minister") Hatoyama Yukio (Y. Hatoyama), known derisively as "the Pige" here at CompHyp (Pige... pigeon; the family name means 'Pigeon Mountain'), hasn't figured out that the main benefit to his resignation from the premiership was that the world didn't have to listen to his loopy schemes and prevarications any more. Yes, I'm being mean. Sadly, the man deserves it:

He goes and runs off playing self-appointed diplomat, goes to Iran and says some very foolish things even though he was admonished not to go...

Hatoyama, who is visiting the country in a personal capacity to make efforts toward a peaceful resolution of the standoff over Tehran's nuclear program, will meet Sunday morning with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad before leaving the country in the evening.

Hatoyama visited Iran despite the Japanese government's concerns that it could result in "dual diplomacy".

Then, for doing so, he got the 'you shouldn't have lecture' from *his own party's officers*...

"The (Japanese) government is taking a consistent position that it would be better if he had not gone (to Iran) at a time like this, even if it is a personal trip," Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura told reporters.

And THEN he had the gall to claim that Iranian reports of his meeting were "completely fabricated"...

The (Iranian) presidential office quoted Hatoyama as saying the IAEA's treatment of certain countries including Iran is ''unfair,'' but the former Japanese leader told reporters Monday night upon returning to Tokyo that Tehran ''completely fabricated'' his comments and he finds that ''regrettable.''

''I have made no comments that deviate from the stance of the Japanese government,'' Hatoyama said.

So one of two things just happened:

Either the Pige went and said something he thought the Iranians wouldn't publicize, or; The Pige was just used as a propaganda tool by the Iranians because they know he can't make any counterclaim stick.

The first would be entirely in character, and damn foolish; The second would be (for the Iranian) entirely in character, and (for the Pige) damn foolish.

Note the similarity of the two possibilities in regard to Y. Hatoyama's conduct.

Another back door

O. Reich and E. Vazquez on How Ecuador's immigration policy helps al Qaeda.

Obviously, not just AQ. What this really is the exit point of the Iran-Venezuela-Ecuador and Dubai-Russia-Cuba-Ecuador pipelines... and the U.S.A. still trivially accessible from Ecuador. Here's the money quote:

While there is no evidence to show that the Correa government established the policy of "open borders" in an effort to attract criminal organizations, that has been the result.

The only thing worse, from a regional security point of view, than having a failed state as a neighbor is having one that is willfully aiding the enemies of civilization. Time to close those tunnels, indeed.

Calling in support

I'm on a deadline this fine evening (local time) and as such won't be going through sources until much later. So I'm calling in support:

Here's the link to the always superb NightWatch for today. The topics are Azerbaijan-Israel, Syria and Mali. The writing is by and for analysts, but I think these topics will be of some general interest as well. I haven't even touched on the Azerbaijan story here (mostly out of concern that I'd be too angry at the time of the leak), but it has become widespread open-source so I don't mind linking to a discussion of it now.

Enjoy!

Less than ideal

... but sometimes you take what you can get.

The financial sanctions against Iran have been loopholed; same same in practice for the EU version of the sanctions.

WASHINGTON (Kyodo) -- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Tuesday the United States has decided to exempt Japan and 10 European countries from its new financial sanctions against Iran over the latter's suspected nuclear weapons program as they have significantly reduced their oil imports from Tehran.

Why this is bad: Sanctions can't be drawn slowly and have an effect that shocks the economy of the target nation. If done after much drum-beating, even sudden sanctions are simply a motivation for a prepared target to act aggressively as long as their stockpile hold out. We've seen this before. (cf. 1940 Oil and Scrap Iron Embargoes against Imperial Japan)

Why this is good: It is a short-term loophole, renewable every 180 days. Those are often misused, but this time it buys time, because...

Japan can't do much more vis Iran without hurting Japan more than hurting Iran. They've already cut 40% over the last five years.

With Japan's efforts to cut such imports, the country has been asking for an exemption for Japanese financial institutions involved in oil transactions, Japan's top government spokesman said.

''Our country, sharing the concerns of the United States and members of the international community over the Iranian nuclear issue, is working with the global community in dealing with Iran based on the approach of dialogue and pressure,'' Fujimura said.

Finance Minister Jun Azumi separately said to journalists that Japan may keep cutting Iranian oil imports in a measured manner.

You can amend that very diplomatic "may" to a "will" unless a lot changes in Iran very quickly. Some Japanese businesses have a history of being famously amoral about origin of resources, but they are also mortally terrified of supply interruption. Iran being what it is today, and with the international opposition to that (finally) rising to an effective level, supply interruption is a real possibility.

Expect Japan to quietly live up to the eventual goal of leaving Iran in financial isolation, just not today.

SWIFT slams the door

The international inter-bank transfer system, SWIFT, has slammed the door on Iran.

Brussels, 15 March 2012 – Following an EU Council decision, SWIFT is today announcing it has been instructed to discontinue its communications services to Iranian financial institutions that are subject to European sanctions.

The new European Council decision, as confirmed by the Belgian Treasury, prohibits companies such as SWIFT to continue to provide specialised financial messaging services to EU-sanctioned Iranian banks. SWIFT is incorporated under Belgian law and has to comply with this decision as confirmed by its home country government.

This closes off virtually all legitimate means of access to the international financial system, for every Iranian asset that matters.

Hang on to your hats, folks. The sanctions regime just got teeth.

Doing it wrong

Josh Rogin at Foreign Policy's "The Cable" has the details on how the Obama administration badly bungled the Iraq SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement) negotiations. Here are two key points:

She (M.C. Sullivan) said that the administration's negotiating strategy was flawed for a number of reasons: it failed to take into account Iraqi politics, failed to reach out to a broad enough group of Iraqi political leaders, and sent contradictory messages on the troop extension throughout the process.

"From the beginning, the talks unfolded in a way where they largely driven by domestic political concerns, both in Washington and Baghdad. Both sides let politics drive the process, rather than security concerns," said Sullivan.

and

Administration sources and Hill staffers also tell The Cable that the demand that the troop immunity go through the Council of Representatives was a decision made by the State Department lawyers and there were other options available to the administration, such as putting the remaining troops on the embassy's diplomatic rolls, which would automatically give them immunity.

"An obvious fix for troop immunity is to put them all on the diplomatic list; that's done by notification to the Iraqi foreign ministry," said one former senior Hill staffer. "If State says that this requires a treaty or a specific agreement by the Iraqi parliament as opposed to a statement by the Iraqi foreign ministry, it has its head up its ass."

This is a case study in making damn sure that petty and unimportant things override strategic imperatives, one that likely Americans will one day rue. I'd say the same about Iraqis, but the lesson of history in that region is that very few fools around those parts live long enough to rue their mistakes. But the blame for this outcome, if one were to wish to place it, should not fall on the Iraqis. This, and the awful possibility of having to go back there one day not so far in the future, should be squarely placed on the heads of those in the Obama administration that wilfully chose this outcome.

Then again...

I confess that of all the possible explanations as to the appalling conduct of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, I hadn't considered this one.

Then again...

...even if it is an absurd claim, it might just get him killed off er... arrested.

Freedom for ... a lot of places.

You are probably watching / reading about the Libya Intervention, and you've likely got the sense that all these Tunisia-Egypt-(a lot of places) Uprisings might just be connected... you'd be right, with the exception of Bahrain which appears to be as much external destabilization as a genuine rising.

Here are two more places to watch, one old news and one very very new on the scene:

Yemen: The uprising there has been fueled as much by the new mood as by the old issues of the North-South divide. The tide is running solidly against the regime now, with even ranking military officers (and co-tribalists of President Saleh) going over to the insurrection. Saleh himself seems to be just trying to get favorable terms under which to leave... another good student of the great Arab Nationalists, he. No need to stick around for the lamppost party after the change in management comes...

Syria: The threat to the Assad regime started slowly this time, and was met with the usual crackdowns and arrests, but... it is still growing. More telling, neither of the traditional opponent groups to the regime are in the picture. The splits are tribal, sectarian, and pragmatic now. (Driving Syria's Druze community into opposition was a particularly clumsy move by the regime.) If that means a significant portion of the State Security apparatus is now at risk of falling in with the rising, then there is a chance that al-Hurra (Arabic: the condition of being free; specifically the opposite of enslaved) may come to Syria.

If only...

May this wind continue to blow, and that even far Iran feels it.

***

Web Sources Reminder:

Besides the major and local media, which may be beyond your ability to judge for veracity (or to read!), here are a couple analysts and a source for in-region media reports that I recommend without reservation:

Your best source for analysis and understanding of matters Yemeni: Jane Novak at Armies of Liberation.

A very good and informed source for the same on Iran and Middle Eastern matters, although of a well-intended bias (that I agree with): Michael Ledeen at Faster, Please! on Pajamas Media.

Original Source Material can also be found in great abundance and translated reliably at MEMRI, the Middle East Media Research Institute. (link is to their 'blog. Homepage has original source video and more.)

Sunday Push, with a FFI bonus

Topic Post No. 1001 in the history of CompHyp.

Some of them have even been serviceable.
((grin))

With that out of the way, here's your Open Thread for this week.

The usual rules apply: Play Nice.

As always, thank you All for coming here.

***

Freedom for Iran: Bag Job on the Oppos

State Security (in one of its many guises) has carried off Mousavi and Karoubi and their families. Beatings, arrests, and then disappearances seem to be the order of the day.

Michael Ledeen the details.

It all looks pretty bad.

Freedom for Iran: Protests continue

Somehow, some way, the protesters are able to keep at it in spite of having almost no meaningful outside support.

That "in spite" part should be changed. If the Obama administration lacks the fortitude to do so, then they should at least stay out of the way and let the Europeans do what can be done. Sure would be nice if Japan weighed in, but that's not likely to happen unless the violence grows worse... if even then... hazukashii desu, yo (shameful!).

Housley on Hiz'b at the border

Recommended reading (and viewing, of the video segment):

CompHyp friend and FOXNews reporter Adam Housley has this report on Hiz'ballah (Hezbollah) smuggling activities in Mexico targeting access to the U.S.A.

It's a good report, and one that covers a topic with several facets (Narco, anti-Americanism, GWOT). Yes, they really are using bases in Venezuela and contacts in Nicaragua and Mexico to try and get to you...

Freedom for Iran: Back into the streets

This last week has seen continuing protests in Yemen and Egypt (even after Mubarak was shown the door by the Army), and new outbreaks in Algeria and a few other places as well... there were even some hopes for a rising in Libya, but not much chance of that, really...

...but the big show, the one that matters because it just *might* work, is in Iran.

Today, the people tried again. Not the biggest protests, by far, but the people are back in the streets.

A live stream from Tehran Bureau (WGBH of PBS) is available here. The first hours looked to be less than promising, but...

Iran Standard Time (IRST), GMT+3:30

4:40 p.m. Al Arabiya is also reporting that Mousavi and Rahnavard have joined the protesters.

Now things get interesting, again.

The list of cities where protests are being held is impressively long, by the way. (scroll down to the first post on the live thread to see it) What that may mean is that the one thing missing from the last major push by the 'Green Movement', an effective spread of the protests outside Tehran to create a nation-wide sense of opposition, may be happening.

Here's hoping so.

No Progress... No Surprise.

The Istanbul round of the P5+G negotiations (the five UNSC Permanent Members and Germany) with Iran over nuclear proliferation has ended with no progress. The two reasons for the failure can be found in the same quote from the BBC article:

EU foreign policy chief Baroness Ashton, who led the international team, said Iran had come to the talks with pre-conditions.

So long as negotiations are entrusted to a nearly-powerless lead negotiator, Iran obviously feels free to engage in non-productive distractions... after all, their goal is to negotiate for nothing and take a long time doing that.

A different dynamic is required for the forces opposing proliferation to succeed.

I would suggest taking on Amb. John Bolton, empowered with a letter authorizing military and economic coercion, to lead any future round of negotiations... but then the Iranians simply wouldn't show up and then push would come to shove.

...which it likely will, anyway. May as well be moving forward those intervention plans, folks. Bets are we will need to use them.

Hariri Tribunal issues a sealed indictment

The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL; a.k.a. 'The Hariri Tribunal') investigators have finally made their official indictments.

International prosecutors have issued an indictment for the 2005 murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The UN-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon has not yet released names of suspects, and a pre-trial judge will now decide whether to issue warrants.

Members of the armed Shia group Hezbollah are expected to be named.

Any bets on how long the secret stays secret? Just asking...

Anyway, the political maneuvers to frame this matter have been underway since Hizb'allah (Hezbollah) walked out of the governing coalition last week. They are hoping to get a compliant administration to refuse further cooperation with the STL. Kind of like gangsters trying to buy off a prosecution, that.

In a pleasant manifestation of stated international support for stability as a new Prime Minister is being selected, the U.S. Embassy has been trying to have some understanding (or small support) of the process. Let's just say the guys on the other side are taking notice:

At the weekend, US ambassador Maura Connelly held talks with Christian MP Nicolas Fattoush - seen as a pivotal figure in the attempt to build a new coalition.

Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami summoned the envoy and accused her of "interference in the internal affairs of Lebanon".

The US strenuously denied the allegations, state department spokesman Philip Crowley telling AFP news agency: "We are respecting Lebanon's sovereignty and we would hope other countries would as well."

Don't worry too much; Ambassador Connelly and the staff there must well know that A. al-Shami is only in that job because his Harakat Amal (Amal Movement) party is hand-in-glove (for now) with the Hizb'allah political wing. Best to simply receive the accusation and just smile quietly. Let Foggy Bottom handle the denials duty. Gives Crowley something to do with his spare time.

The big issue in this, of course, is what will Hizb'allah do if they think a government supported by Saudi Arabia, France, and or the United States is going to come into power. Unless it will be a terribly weak coalition, one with those supporters is not going to back off the quest to punish Hariri (Sr.) 's assassins. That will leave Hizb'allah only with its lifeline allies of Iran, Syria and anyone playing for their team, then Amal and the turncoat faction led by Michel Aoun siding with it in-country.

That isn't a sit-pat hand in the allies department, and there isn't much other than offering safe exile that they could do if they wait until the STL makes the charges formal and public. The expected play will be to continue to short-circuit the process: If bringing down the administration won't stop things, then the next step is probably either a move to *make* Hizb'allah the government (a coup or civil war) or the threat of a external conflict of sufficient size to distract attention (gee, another Hizb-Israeli War might do). But I'm not sure that latter choice would work. The Saudis for one would happily fight Hizb'allah to the last Israeli, if you get my meaning, and such a conflict going regional would simply end any sense in the Gulf Cooperation Council that the Iranian regime could be tolerated any longer.

Avoiding that and getting the accused to trial may be mutually exclusive.

I *think* it would be worth it, though, especially if those still-sealed indictments reach out beyond Hizb'allah... maybe even outside Lebanon...

Mookie's back

In this 22.Dec.2010 article by the BBC summarizing the change of power that happened in Iraq when Nouri al-Maliki managed to get the Sadrist political faction to back his retaining the Prime Ministry, the author wrote:

Mr Sadr's exact whereabouts is a secret, though he is widely believed to be studying in Iran.

That wasn't much of a secret, folks. Moqtada al-Sadr (Muqtada al-Sadr), pretender to his father's place in the Shiite religious heirarchy and career goon-squad leader, ran to Iran when the boom came down on his "Mehdi Army" (properly Jaish al-Mahdi; JaM) in 2007 and 2008. He presence there previously had been during his artfully provided theological education that just barely qualified him for the titles he is so proud of, and that was where his protectors and enablers in the Pasdaran (IRGC) were best able to protect him again.

So fast-forward to today; The Sadrist political functionaries are an essential bloc in the parliamentary support for the new government. Officially, the JaM is disarmed. Slate wiped clean. Loyal Iraqis, all of them, by official declaration.

Guess who just got off an airplane. Yup, Mookie is back in Iraq.

I'll be nice about this... presuming he and his followers follow the law and voice their opinion in the manner of democratic discourse, welcome home.

One step over the line, and some one should haul him in and bring out all the charges (from treason against the State to simple murders and quite a lot in between) that have been conveniently set aside... and make this the last time anyone has to deal with this man and his collection of thugs. Ever.

Another Ahmadinejad move toward loyalty

For those following the roll-over of personnel at the top of the Ahmadinejad regime in Iran, there was this bit of foreshadowing last November, calling the split between President M. Ahmadinejad's faction and that of Parliament Speaker A. Larijani.

We got another look at what was happening when Foreign Minister M. Mottaki got unceremoniously sacked in mid-December.

The next cards to fall have now fallen. 14 Presidential Advisers have been shown the door:

The Peninsula newspaper said the Mehr news agency quoted presidential adviser Mehdi Kalhor as saying he and 13 others had received letters notifying them they had been terminated. Similarly, PBS Frontline's Tehran bureau reported the Iranian Web site Mashregh also announced the firings.

Iran's Press TV reported Ahmadinejad thanked the 14 for their service and wished them well in other service areas.

...

Frontline said most of those dismissed were aligned with Iran's hardliners and had been critical of Ahmadinejad's chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei.

So it isn't that anything like reform might be happening; It is more a consolidation based on loyalty to Ahmadinejad and his close circle.

The revolution is dead, and has been for some time. The autocrat and his circle are now attempting to lock in their place at the center of power.

That's nothing but bad news for the people of Iran, and worse news for the rest of us, if that comes to be.

Mottaki gets the sack

That's about all that is known about this, for now... that Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki has been removed from the portfolio.

Iran's President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has fired Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki.

In a brief statement on the president's website today, Ahmadinejad thanked Mottaki for his more than five years of service but gave no explanation for the change.

Ahmadinejad has appointed the country's top nuclear official, Ali Akbar Salehi, as the caretaker for the key position.

Sacked him while he is on an official visit to Senegal, too. Bad timing, that; unhappy diplomats sacked while abroad have a nasty habit of staying abroad... wonder if his Pasdaran (IRGC) minders were suitably informed prior to the announcement to make certain he *will* come home, ne?

boom

insert internet meme here

No, not that. This.

More on Iran's West African Debacle

Consider this a followup to an earlier CompHyp thread:

A lot of thoughts on how and why Iran got into this mess by Robert Tait at RFE/RL. He links the November 19th heroin seizure in Nigeria to the larger problem of the arms smuggling, and his sources see the latter as a Pasdaran (IRGC) operation involving someone greedy opportunists in the Government of The Gambia. Hmm.

The Nigerian Government is certainly not taking this at all lightly. They have gone with charges against one Iranian and three Nigerians and have laid the accusation of this being an IRGC operation:

Azim Adhajani, identified on the charge sheet as a Tehran-based businessman and member of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, was charged alongside an alleged Nigerian accomplice with the importation of prohibited firearms.

They actually had two Iranians on the hook when this broke, but one had diplomatic immunity and got out of the country in the company of Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki shortly after this case broke. As usual.

Should be a lovely trial.

The Gambia tells off Iran

Short and to the point.

"...cutting all ties with Iran. Iranian government representatives have 48 hours to pack and be gone.

You might have noticed that Nigeria found an illicit shipment of arms in containers marked "Building Materials" bound from Iran to The Gambia last month... yes, that same old pathetic trick again... well, apparently the Government of The Gambia was not exactly expecting the delivery. Nor are they particularly pleased that the Iranians were trying something:

"All government of The Gambia projects and programmes, which were [being] implemented in co-operation with the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, have been cancelled," the Gambian foreign ministry said in a statement.

Bravo, Gambians.