Priceless

How does the credit card company advertisement go...?

Sub-Saharan Mercenaries: a few hundred dollars a day, tops.

Russian-built multiple rocket launchers: a couple hundred thousand a pop.

A Nicaraguan career-misanthrope and fixture of the international blame-America set as your new U.N. envoy: priceless.

priceless = comedy gold in this case.

Way to go on the "buy some respect" move there, Moammar.

Housley on Hiz'b at the border

Recommended reading (and viewing, of the video segment):

CompHyp friend and FOXNews reporter Adam Housley has this report on Hiz'ballah (Hezbollah) smuggling activities in Mexico targeting access to the U.S.A.

It's a good report, and one that covers a topic with several facets (Narco, anti-Americanism, GWOT). Yes, they really are using bases in Venezuela and contacts in Nicaragua and Mexico to try and get to you...

Daremblum on Nicaragua

Ambassador Jaime Daremblum (of Costa Rica, represented them to the U.S.A. 1998~2004) takes the knife to both the OAS and the Obama administration regarding the Nicaraguan occupation of the San Juan River basin:

In case further proof was needed that the Organization of American States (OAS) has become embarrassingly incompetent, witness its pathetic response to Nicaragua’s invasion of Costa Rica.

Yes, he is a biased source. Not a problem. In this case, he is correct in taking Costa Rica's side. He also knows more about Central American and Caribbean political matters than the entirety of the U.S. State Department.

So read it all, please.

Three places to watch - November edition

There are always places out there hanging on the edge of conflict. Here at CompHyp, I've made it a habit in the past to point them out as the first open-sources (usually minor media reports) come out about them. This is by no means exhaustive, but for now let's live up to that tradition again with Three Places to Watch:

1) Sudan ~ It is voter registration time as of today for the national devolution referendum. This almost didn't happen, but a last minute deal seems to have kept the door open. For the next 17 days registration will compile voter lists all through Sudan that will be used for the 9.January 2011 vote. But to get to this point several side deals have been cut; the matter of contesting the demarcation of Abyei region will be treated with negotiation between the al-Bashir regime (the de jure government; represents the 'North') and the SPLM autonomous area government (the opposition separatists; the 'South') and that is just a recipe for a sellout done out of the media's view. There have also been some (upon examination) absurd claims of military build-ups and border fights along the separation line between North and South this weekend. That being what it is, the real risk is that there *will* be a military build-up as both sides think that a vote in favor of Southern secession will come. So put this on your watch list, but do be careful of breathless panic stories that could be the product of the flame-fanning on both sides.

2) Lebanon ~ The investigation into the Hariri assassination is coming to a close, and it looks like Hezbollah (Hizb' Allah; Party of God; the Iranian-sponsored faction of terrorist and Israel-attacking infamy) is going to get indictments from the Special Tribunal laid on several of their leadership. Hezbollah has angrily denounced that possibility, and says they will not comply. The last time they had a bout of 'non-compliance' they damn near restarted the Lebanese Civil War. If the indictments *are* upon leadership elements of Hezbollah, and there is a will by the State to try and enforce them, Hezbollah will likely start a fight. With someone. Plan for the worst there.

3) Nicaragua ~ Specifically, the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border violation along the San Juan River by Nicaraguan military elements. This is happening now. No, it isn't just a Google Maps error. It is claim jumping of the first order. The problem is made worse by the obvious contempt held by the Nicaraguan military for the Costa Rican Fuerza Pública (Public Force; Police with some paramilitary capability; Costa Rica has no regular army). Costa Rica also has depended in the past on the OAS to provide some amount of diplomatic protection for their interests, but that isn't going to happen if this matter is left in the hands of the current ALBA-influenced leadership at the OAS. Nicaragua under Ortega is proving to be another example that friends-of-Hugo are really bad neighbors. Oddly enough, this is also related to Iranian gamesmanship as they've got interests in their new Atlantic-side port project in Nicaragua and are in bed with the ALBA Chavistas. Potentially a really ugly situation.

Iran in Latin America

They are just reaching out... building diplomatic relationships... sure...

You might want to read this before you take that position.

The Argentinean prosecutor who ferreted out Iranian links to Argentina's largest terror attack warned Wednesday of Teheran's growing terror network in Latin America.

He cites chapter and verse on the whole story... and it isn't good news.

The Weekly N&C for July 20th, 2009

Apples and Apples and Oranges

So is there ever a case where one international situation is the same (within argument); that there are enough parallels that hypocrisy in the reaction of outside governments becomes apparent?

Rhetorical question.

One that is almost unanswerable without a detailed knowledge of the finer points of any cases being compared, but...

...when such comparisons do catch the attention, hypocrisy can be the second thing to come to mind (the first always being "the world is a terrible place", or some other such moment of sympathy for the innocent caught up in the turmoil).

Here's a couple of cases, just to see whether they trigger one's hypocrisy alarm:

The Bolivarian Socialist bloc, voiced by President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua, have claimed open support for demonstrations inside Honduras in favor of making removed-and-exiled former President Manuel Zelaya un-exiled and reinstated. They have certainly made vast amounts of resources available to sustain demonstrations and political protests outside Honduras, and there is solid enough evidence that they've sent support to the Zelaya faction inside Honduras.

So what? Zelaya is their man, and he got caught working the political machinations to turn Honduras into a Chavista vassal state. Of course they are opposed to his removal. Power to the Zelaya People and print up more t-shirts for the protesters.

Meanwhile, in Venezuela, there have been ongoing labor actions against the various interventions by the Chavez regime... PDVSA (the national Oil monopoly) workers against party-appointed "union leaders" and "management"...

(Provea human rights NGO general coordinator, Marino) Alvarado accused Labor Minister María Cristina Iglesias of ordering the arrest of five employees of the state-run oil company Pdvsa Gas Anaco, who led a protest last April at the gates of the Ministry of Labor.

Alvarado stressed that such detentions show that the government has gradually become intolerant to demonstrations.

Note that the right to strike is guaranteed under the Venezuelan Constitution. Such arrests functionally make the criminalization of protests State Policy.

Same story goes for Venezuelan Guayana's Corporation (CGV), the State-controlled Aluminum smelters in Venezuela. Expect these strikes to be criminalized shortly.

So, protests against Honduras = good; protests against Chavista Venezuela = bad.

No surprise, but pretty blatant.


Madagascar, and the removal of Marc Ravalomanana by the military (acting on their own impetus). Ravalomanana is outright deposed, but not arrested, for a list of supposed crimes against the people and the State. He makes his way to southern Africa and is immediately welcomed into the SADC regional community as "still the legitimate President of Madagascar". Weeks went by, and pressure from all manner of the political bodies in the region mounted... threats of outside intervention were made... activists (provocateurs) demonstrated publicly, and plotted privately... the latest acts being a campaign of attempted bombings orchestrated by former government officials. Yet when this matter came before a more distant interested party (France)

France denounced the attempted strikes in its former colony and called for the island's feuding leaders to resume talks towards establishing a consensus government.

"France condemns all recourse to violence in Madagascar and hopes light is shone on this affair," said a statement from the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

In fact, France has shown a distinct willingness to keep the Rajoelina junta in place *in spite of serious Constitutional challenges to that having any legitimacy* and negotiate toward arranging for an election at some unspecified future date.

Yet France, as party to the European Union response to the Honduras Crisis, and even in possession of the entire manifest of Constitutionally-compliant actions by the interim government of Honduras (up to the act of exile), has seen to withdrawing its ambassador and calling for the reinstatement of M. Zelaya.

Maybe they would see things differently if Honduras had ever been a French Colony...


The Honduras Crisis negotiations (if they still exist) are supposed to forestall "possible civil war", yet the talking points being waved around by negotiator-in-chief President Oscar Arias of Costa Rica are as of this date a list of the Zelaya camp's demands, and the talks have rightfully gone nowhere.

It will be most edifying to see if *when* the impatient Mr. Zelaya (and his far-more impatient Bolivarian Socialist backers) attempts to force the issue with rioting and his return to some corner of Honduras, whether anyone will call this act what it is:

Just another attempt to make a government in Stanleyville to oppose the government in Leopoldville. (reference: Congo Crisis, 1960)

Let's try to stop that from happening again. That time, the guys with red stars on their hats poured material and weapons in and the result was five more years of bloody and nearly senseless warfare.

If it takes someone stepping up to the Zelaya-backers and saying "if that happens, then we go all-in on the side of the Interim Government; if it doesn't, you've got your negotiations", then so be it.

What's the worst that could happen if you (a country) steps up?

Hugo Chavez rants his hatred for you. Sounds pretty much like what he does already.

Big deal.

***

End Notes:

All notes are embedded in the text as links.

General Information on all matters and persons referenced in the text are available at Wikipedia, but as always *remember that this is a contentious matter* and to check carefully all sources cited therein.

This is negotiating?

Mediator-in-Chief Oscar Arias must be turning a new-found shade of purple right now...

Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is just not letting up on the "Zelaya is returning" claims. This morning, he came up with Manuel Zelaya would return to his country "in the coming hours".

Given the reports in Honduran newspapers of a supposed insurgency attempt to go along with such a return, it is rather unlikely that any return attempt is going to be greeted with a pleasant 'welcome home'... more likely, a pleasant 'you are under arrest'.

Zelaya plots; Chavez rants

The Zelaya faction (inside and more, outside Honduras) is not so happy with Costa Rican President Oscar Arias' efforts at mediation, and are ignoring calls for "patience". So, the demagogue plays to his populist base...

Calling on his supporters in unions to stage a work-stoppage on his behalf:

Commendable in principle; if entirely peaceful, commendable in practice.

Claiming he (Manuel Zelaya) will re-enter the country with supporters, who are apparently being armed at the behest outside interests:

um... not exactly commendable conduct for someone who is claiming legitimacy.

"We are going to install the constitutional assembly. We are going to burn the Congress," protest leader Miriam Miranda vowed.

Legitimate insurgency, or the armed march on the center of power, is what one does when there is no recourse within the institutions of the nation to bring down a government.

I'd say this is pretty much a slap in the face of Oscar Arias. It likely undermines what claim M. Zelaya might have of being the wronged party.

Of course, his having friends saying things like *this* is not helping his case either.

note: The claims H. Chavez is attempting to repudiate are these (Spanish-language source).

Honduras curfew lifted; talks go on

The curfew that was imposed in the wake of the forcible removal of M. Zelaya from the Presidency and the wave of violent protests orchestrated to oppose that move has been lifted. Life there has at least a moment of normalcy.

The talks (they really aren't negotiations yet) being held by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias to seek an agreed resolution to the situation go on. The Micheletti administration in Honduras has even considered the possibility of amnesty after trial for Zelaya. (Spanish-language source)

Daniel at Venezuela News and Views reads these turns of events as a defeat all across the board for the Chavez-led Zelaya-fronted faction. He thinks the biggest casualty of all this will be J. M. Insulza, the Secretary General of the OAS (and often-apologist for H. Chavez). Mr. Insulza is likely not gathering much support for a new term as SecGen by his performance in this affair. The irony is that by failing to be fair, the U.S.A. lost what faith it had in him, and yet by failing as a useful idiot agent of their agenda, the Venezuelan government will likely not support his re-selection either.

Couldn't happen to a more appropriate fellow, as far as this author is concerned.

Asking the real question

The Honorable Otto J. Reich, in testimony Friday before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, asked the real question about the international reaction to the removal of M. Zelaya from the Presidency of Honduras:

How can the so-called democratic community allow Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and other countries that have either destroyed self-rule, or are in the process of doing so, to determine the standards of democracy in the region?

Read the entire testimony, please. He recognizes the mistake the Honduran government made of expelling Zelaya rather than arresting him and trying the charges. But he also makes a fine defense of the legitimacy of the removal of Zelaya from office.

More importantly, it is an absolutely deadly indictment of the ALBA role in the attempt by Zelaya to commit an autogolpe, and it should be a warning as to how far the Chavez-led clique will go to try and make this situation worse.

Zelaya expected back in Washington D.C.

Some amount of quiet has fallen in Honduras today, after yesterday's entirely orchestrated "kabuki dance" of former-President Manuel Zelaya trying to fly into the country.

The Toncontin Airport at Tegulcigalpa, Honduras, is closed today and tomorrow for security (and repairs) after the damage caused by break-through agitators with armed with wirecutters (and maybe more...).

M. Zelaya is now expected back in Washington D.C. on Tuesday for a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State H. Clinton. This might be a good thing: It *might* signal an effort to wrest control of the U.S. official reaction away from a certain NSC Western Hemisphere staffer whose motivation for his actions to-date are rather suspect. *Maybe*.

It could well be an encore performance of the dance done while Zelaya was in the Residence of the Ecuadorian Ambassador in Washington where the various players acting in his defense constructed his attempted trip back to Honduras. (See documentation at ECrisis in the July 6th posting, regarding that meeting)
**text corrected: the Residence, not the embassy itself**

There may yet be more reasonable (and less self-interested) involvement in this matter to come from the Obama administration, but I'll believe it when I see it.

At least Hugo Chavez is public about his support for Zelaya, and his role in supporting the demonstrators. How refreshing.

***

Previously on this, here at CompHyp yesterday.

***

Zelaya thinks he can force the issue

...by trying to go back to Honduras.

He couldn't get any of his ALBA buddies to get on the airplane with him, nor would the OAS leader. That pretty much rules out the "300 journalists" on the flight, too, although there are certainly seats available now.

He is said to have gotten Miguel D'Escoto, the former regional troublemaker now supposedly gainfully employed as the U.N. General Assembly president, to go with him.

The Honduran Government-in-place is not taking this lightly. Furthermore, given the raft of indictments against M. Zelaya, if he does reach the ground he should be arrested. If D'Escoto would like, he can waive whatever diplomatic immunity he has and be arrested too, but he'd have to ask nicely.

***

UPDATE ~1700hrs ('blogtime):

Roughly four hours ago Spanish language media had the aircraft landed in El Salvador. That may well have been a refueling.

In the last hour, Honduras ATC warned off the flight, then Zelaya claimed the flight was circling the airport at Tegucigalpa but the runway was blocked. He shortly thereafter claimed the flight was redirecting "to El Salvador" which doesn't quite jibe with having been their just before... and now the announcement comes that he will be landing in Managua, Nicaragua.

I didn't know Kabuki was popular in Latin America... sheesh.

***

If you have time to read one more source... Read Hunter Smith at Honduras Abandoned. His updates #4 and #5 for today are the best on-the-scene reporting out there right now. Shame on the major media outlets...

***

Hunter Smith called it, and I got lucky on spotting the staged Reuters wirephoto as it came in. Both he and William A. Jacobson at Legal Insurrection have kindly tipped the hat to CompHyp for this. Thank you both, gents.

There is reasonable confirmation from multiple sources of 1 dead in the encounter at the airport perimeter fence (*not* the main body of the demonstration, the agitators that pressed on past the stop-line), there may well be 2 dead. What isn't in yet are the medic reports on cause of death. That's another one for us to look to those on-scene to get news out on.

***

More on this as it comes in.

***

Honduras makes its case

In the wake of an international reaction that runs the gamut from "critical of the process" to "calls for an invasion", the Republic of Honduras could well have chosen to fold their cards...

Not Happening.

They've got a lot of the facts on their side against the Zelaya autogolpe, and they are showing a willingness to stand up for their own constitution.

The faces of the government are being made available to the media, including these statements made to the Associated Press. In fact, were M. Zelaya to attempt to return home (no matter who is accompanying him), there are 17 charges on file standing against him that would be served upon any return. Interim President R. Micheletti correctly observes that only a nation wanting an excuse for war would try to accompany a Zelaya return in the face of that.

Oh, by the way, given a couple of days to go through the records kept by the former-Zelaya administration's private offices, it seems that there is evidence of support for narco-trafficking that had been a booming business the last couple of years through Honduras in spite of official efforts. Real evidence of a Zelaya-Venezuela-FARC connection could be as important as the "Raul Reyes" computer files were in documenting the FARC relationships with other governments and officials in the region.

There's a lot of media noise about M. Zelaya being in Washington D.C. now, after his General Assembly play-to-the-balcony-seats.

What isn't being said, much, is that the interim government is also on the way to D.C. with a rather large entourage... and they've likely got a pretty good case to make... if anyone will let it be heard.

The Weekly N&C for June 29th, 2009

Why is this case different?

Short and to the point for today:

Why is the case of Honduras forcibly removing its sitting President...

as reported by The AP and by Reuters (quoting the Cuban government!) and by The BBC

...different from cases like Madagascar (2009) and Haiti (2004)? (note the language in the UNSC resolution about Haiti completely accepting the forcible removal of a sitting President)

It is different because, as Mary Anastasia O'Grady observes in today's WSJ, this time the levers of power in organizations like the OAS and in the hands of some advisers to the current American administration are no friends of rule-of-law democracy. She writes:

The OAS response is no surprise. Former Argentine Ambassador to the U.N. Emilio Cárdenas told me on Saturday that he was concerned that "the OAS under Insulza has not taken seriously the so-called 'democratic charter.' It seems to believe that only military 'coups' can challenge democracy. The truth is that democracy can be challenged from within, as the experiences of Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and now Honduras, prove." A less-kind interpretation of Mr. Insulza's judgment is that he doesn't mind the Chávez-style coup.

Remember, elections and plebiscites must be part of a constitutional process or they are nothing more than tools to be used to place the patina of legitimacy on autocracy...

"The Man of December", Napoleon III of France, knew very well about all that.

He managed both an autogolpe and a national referendum to legitimize his seizing absolute power and establishing the Second French Empire.

More democracies die by suicide than by murder.

Maybe, just maybe, Honduras has avoided a death of the Republic for now.

That is, if the murderers out there can be kept at bay.

***

End Notes:

All noted citations are embedded in the text as links.

For your amusement and edification as to what an autogolpe (self-coup) is, here is an incomplete list of historical examples of leaders in power "legitimately" that have chosen to seize power "absolutely". Note that the Elias autogolpe of 1993 Guatemala failed precisely because of an intervention by the institutions of the nation against him.

Spoke Too Soon Award winner

Irony time in Honduras:

Just hours after President Manuel Zelaya told Spain's El Pais newspaper that a coup d'etat against him was thwarted (supposedly by *American* intervention)...

"Everything was in place for the coup and if the U.S. embassy had approved it, it would have happened. But they did not ... I'm only still here in office thanks to the United States," he said in the newspaper interview published on Sunday.

...things haven't quite worked out that way.

Local television in Honduras reports he was arrested on Sunday by troops. Here is a more detailed report from the BBC.

Looks less like a coup d'etat and more like perhaps the Supreme Court of Honduras is not feeling very forgiving after Zelaya led a bunch of protesters to the nearby base and demanded possession of the ballots for this weekend's referendum, which has been declared illegal.

It remains to be seen what charges are filed, if any. That will decide whether this arrest is legal or not.

***

Update:

Now there is something just a little inexplicable about this... President Zelaya is in Costa Rica, claiming "a coup" and a "brutal kidnapping".

There is an Army presence in the capital of Honduras, Tegucigalpa, with armored vehicles seen and trucks loaded with riot-equipped soldiers surrounding the Presidential Palace, but...

...no one is claiming to be in control...

...and how the heck did Zelaya get out of the country, free to make counter-claims?

***

More on this Fauta's Blog , with some details the English-language media is still behind on. She's running updates as new information becomes available.

The key point made there (Fausta's) based on Spanish-language sources is that the Supreme Court of Justice did issue an arrest order.

Based on some very clever other people's observations there, it may well have been in response to a clear violation of Article 239 of the Honduran Constitution, but I'll leave that for better scholars on current Honduran Law than me to make clear.

The question of "why isn't Zelaya still under arrest?" remains open for now.

***

Chasing sources, getting some much appreciated help (thank you, M!)

This *may* be getting much bigger. "radio bemba" (Venezuelan; rumors) sources have the Venezuelan Armed Forces being put on alert... and that

El comandante del Comando Sur le dice a VENEZUELAN ARMY que no se atrevan a despegar sus aviones o helicopteros, serán derribados en el Caribe, este consejo se extiende a los Cubanos y Nicaraguenses.

That would be "Commander of (U.S.) Southern Command has told Venezuelan Army not to dare to take off, otherwise its planes or helicopters will be shot down. The same goes for Cubans and Nicaraguans." in English. Please, take this all as rumor, but it illustrates how bad this could get if it spirals.

H. Chavez (President of Venezuela; chief Zelaya ally) has stated in public that the Armed Forces of Venezuela are on alert... his quote according to the AP was "is at battle"...

I could call the USSOUTHCOM PAO... on a Sunday... to get a heartfelt *no comment*... and probably some other choice words about my ancestry... and I wouldn't blame him a bit. Let's leave that be until a press release is issued.

***

There has been some matter of a Zelaya resignation letter, dated last Thursday, being waved around in the Honduran Congress, however it is confirmed that The Honduran Congress has named Speaker Roberto Micheletti as the new President, which follows constitutional rules of succession.

***

Source in the U.S. government are now stating that the Zelaya government is still recognized.

"We recognize Zelaya as the duly elected and constitutional president of Honduras. We see no other," the Obama administration official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

It is clearly becoming a case now where the failure to detain and charge M. Zelaya with specific crimes is calling the entire process into question.

Given that virtually the entire legal and political structure of Honduran state institutions had already weighed in with claims against Zelaya, what happened that prevented the military from moving *after* they had a cooperative prosecutor with an indictment? What is it about the situation that didn't allow for that?

...and, again, how did Zelaya end up a free man in Costa Rica able to plead his case from a position of a defensible claim of being wrongly removed?

***

By the company that they keep

Throughout the tribal uprising in Peru's Department of Amazonas this last week, rumors of ALBA House (the Bolivarian Socialist International) being money behind the movement have circulated.

Well... with the Peruvian Army having moved in on Saturday after the local police were overwhelmed, taken hostage (and in the case of nine of the officers, reportedly killed), and with charges being filed against indigenous leader Alberto Pizango of sedition, conspiracy and rebellion...

A. Pizango has fled to the protection of the Nicaraguan Embassy.

If "You shall know them by the company that they keep" applies here, that pretty much answers the rumors.

It's the little things in the news

It is the little things buried in the news that often are the most telling...

Here's an example: A report by Reuters on the investigation into the attempted murder of "Yellow Shirt" People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) leader Sondhi Limthongkul, which remains unsolved despite claims in the Bangkok Post claiming a military role in the attack. Late in the report, it changes focus to give information on upcoming protests by "Red Shirt" activists of Thaksin Shinawartra's United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) party. It concludes with

Thaksin, who lives in self-imposed exile to avoid a two-year jail term on conflict of interest charges, was not expected to address the rally as he did previous protests by video link.

Thailand revoked Thaksin's passport after the latest violence and has urged governments to deny him refuge, but the wily former premier has eluded Bangkok's efforts to extradite him.

Thaksin has a diplomatic passport from Nicaragua and showed up in the West African country of Liberia last week, saying he was scouting for investment opportunities.

Now it is well known that Thaksin has access to the U.K., and significant business interests there, but it has been something of a wonder that he has stayed ahead of arrest while he seemingly carelessly jet-sets around the world.

Now you know. He's untouchable.

The current Government of Nicaragua can be bought.

Given the access groups like Iran's Pasdaran (IRGC) have to Nicaragua, this should pretty much put chills up the spine of any national security officer in the world.

The Weekly N&C for April 13th, 2009

Leaving Denial

It has been a longstanding matter in Arab Republic of Egypt that the greatest threat always comes from within. Neither Israel’s willingness to fight on Egyptian soil rather than their own, nor Libya’s occasional threats of border warfare are existential threats; the Israelis have no desire to attack the heartland of Egypt, and the Libyans lack the capability. But Egypt is a secular Arab nation, perhaps the definitive example of the Arab Nationalist State, and that has meant that through all the years since the rise of Jamal Abdel Nasser’s seizure of the state and his securing power in the wake of the Suez Incident (1956), there has been a single significant opposition to the power of the state: The Moslem Brotherhood. This Islamist movement has significant strength in other Arab States, but nowhere does it have such deep roots as in Egypt. While the government of Egypt makes some substantial claims that the Moslem Brotherhood participates in militant resistance to the secular state, and they are certainly advocates of such, what they actually provide to the Islamist cause is an ideological base and a large following that has been taught to believe in that thinking.

The government has been more than willing to attribute all manner of plots and affairs to the Moslem Brotherhood, has placed bans on their activities and actively pursued members of the group for crimes real… and perhaps not-so-real. But one thing that was almost insistently claimed was that the activities of such Islamist inside Egypt was an Egyptian problem, caused by and blamed on Egyptians. To consider the possibility of an outside hand influencing things was often dismissed with such canards as “Sunni militants don’t cooperate with Shiite militants”.

Where that all began to break down was when the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ) appeared from within the Moslem Brotherhood’s ranks in 1980. This group came to the fore with stunning rapidity and on October 6th, 1981, committed the assassination of President Anwar El Sadat. There are a host of names associated with Khalid Al-Islambouli, the assassin who would be heard of again, elsewhere: Omar Abdel-Rahman wrote the fatwa (clerical justification under Islamic Law) for the assassination; another of the Cairo-based element was Ayman Al-Zawahiri; just to cite examples.

Astoundingly, while the Egyptian government did break the cell and arrest most all of the then-called Tanzim al-Jihad, only 5 members were executed and the bulk of the mid-rank members were released from jail after serving a few years in prison. Those members then went into wide dispersal, many to Afghanistan and Pakistan to join in the Mujahideen in the war against the Soviet invaders of Afghanistan.

But even without its most militant faction, the Moslem Brotherhood continued to inspire. In nearby Gaza of the Palestine Mandate Territory, the Palestinian wing of the Moslem Brotherhood spawned Ḥarakat al-Muqāwamat al-Islāmiyyah, the Islamic Resistance Movement, better known by its acromym: HAMAS. From its very beginning in 1987, HAMAS has proven to be the most determined Islamist movement inside the Palestinian community, and by far the most successful. Moreover, the strength that has allowed that success is of a kind not only drawn from the support of fellow believers inside Egypt but from a close, supportive relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Weapons and money flowed into HAMAS, and more; the only Palestinian militant group that has even considered implementing the particular version of Islamic Law practiced by the theocrats that run Iran is HAMAS.

So here we have a parallel linkage occurring.

EIJ members are one of the significant elements that make up al-Qaeda and implement their plots: Abdel-Rahman was a key part of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing (truck bomb); Al-Zawahiri is one of “a majority” of the members of al-Qaeda’s ruling council drawn from EIJ. In the annals of al-Qaeda, EIJ formally became a part of al-Qaeda in June of 2001. But in the background, back home in Egypt, there is a wide community of support for such endeavors in the well-sown field of the Egyptian under-classes that are the political base of the current incarnation of the Moslem Brotherhood. This is just the sort of prepared ideological base that can be turned to use by active militants, just as it had been throughout the period of “open war” between the EIJ and the Egyptian government (1993~2000).

Yet at the same time, the HAMAS group is a cat’s-paw of Iran in their struggle for dominance over the Middle East. They need constant support and re-arming, and Iran is the primary facilitator for that. But one can not (as some more innocent supporters found out when they tried) simply sail a boat loaded with supplies into the Gaza Strip. The district is under strict Israeli embargo / inspection on three sides, and the Egyptian government makes at least all the right public postures about keeping their Gaza border closed as well. To get anything of value to militants into the Gaza, one has to have a route through Egypt (from somewhere, most often Sudan) leading up to the Sinai, and then access to the HAMAS-controlled smuggling tunnels into the Gaza.

There are a few sources that say the parallel linkage had become unified during the time EIJ was run by al-Zawahiri, with members being sent to Iran for training, and to work and train with Hezbollah, the Iranian front-group in Lebanon…

Oh yes, Hezbollah (Hizub’llah; Party of God), the state-within-a-state opposition to Israel’s existence and primary tool world-wide of Iran’s Pasdaran (Guardians of the Islamic Revolution; commonly abbreviated as IRGC). Now there is a shining example of Shiite extremism forged into a useful weapon for Iranian military and political goals. But such a group couldn’t possibly find any support or assistance within Egypt for its activities, could it?

The government of Egypt certainly acted as if Hezbollah’s agenda had no traction, at least until recently. Well, it seems that it is time to be leaving such denial behind:

April 9th, 2009, Egypt discovered and arrested 15 Hezbollah operatives inside Egypt planning acts of terror against the state and seeing to supplying arms to HAMAS for use against Israel.

April 12th, 2009, the details of the case became clearer and the origin of the threat to the Egyptian government was connected to the growing hostility between Egypt and Iran (over Bahrain’s sovereignty; Lebanon’s political future; and over a host of Arab reactions to recent Iranian provocations).

April 13th, 2009, the sheer size of the Hezbollah operation is unmasked, with Egyptian authorities in pursuit of 13 more Hezbollah operatives in the Sinai.

There is a lesson to be learned here, and it applies not only to the situation in Egypt:

Iran’s Pasdaran will use whatever linkage they can to gain support, where ever they can find the ground prepared.

That means not discounting an active al-Qaeda connection just because the Taliban are historically opposed to Iran. It is provable that Iranian arms are being fed into Afghanistan just as they were (and are, albeit at a lesser rate) into Iraq.

That means remembering the success Iran (via Hezbollah) has had in South America, successfully performing two major bombings in Argentina.

That means being very, very wary of the Tehran-Damascus-Caracas air link and the toleration that is being shown to Hezbollah representatives in Venezuela; the same applies to the outsized “diplomatic” presence in Nicaragua held by the Iranians right now.

If one insists on denying that the Iranians are not intent on using their capabilities to further their campaign of undeclared war, at a time and place of their choosing, then…

Then one day the arrests won’t just be happening in Egypt.

They’ll be happening where you live.

That is, if your police are as fortunate as the Egyptian authorities were this time.

***
End Notes:

All directly relevant End Notes are linked in the text.

General Information on all the Groups, Persons, and Places can be found at Wikipedia. The usual caveat applies to such, however: Check all the sources.

Upcoming election in El Salvador

This merits particular attention as the reformed FMLN party (Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front; formerly the communist insurgent movement of the same name) is strongly contesting the January 18th election for the Legislative Assembly, and their candidate is leading in the polls for the Presidential election coming up in March. *Here is AngusReid Global Monitor's background report*, with links to current polling data.

The most worrisome possibility of a strong showing by the FMLN is that there are historical ties to D. Ortega's bunch in Nicaragua, and more recent associations with H. Chavez' Bolivarian Socialist movement. So far, even the FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes has said they aren't in the same boat as Chavez...

On Oct. 9 (2008), Funes dismissed critics who suggest that he would align his policies with those of left-wing Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez if elected, saying, "The fact that we have good relations with Venezuela doesn’t mean that we breathe through Venezuela’s nose or through Hugo Chávez’s nose."

But renewed recognition of the Cuban regime is on the table, and then there are all the possible issues of having a(nother) CAFTA-member nation potentially joining in the Bolivarian bloc.

On the other side, the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA; the longstanding conservative party) has a law and order candidate running for President in former National Police chief Rodrigo Ávila. Were his tough stance against groups like MS-13 equalled by a tough stance on political corruption, he might be an ideal choice.

Nicaragua Commentary

A very well-presented piece of Opinion writing at the Christian Science Monitor, today, on how Nicaragua is in a spiral down, and how outside influence might help prevent that.

The information on the numbers of Nicaraguans who have fled the country to Costa Rica and El Salvador are particularly informative, in context.