Civilian panic in Swat, NWFP

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is citing tens of thousands of displaced persons fleeing the North West Frontier Provinces as the Pakistani Taliban have gone on the offensive and the Pakistani Army has begun at least a few serious operations to stop them.

Here's where is gets bad: As the UNHCR alluded to in the summary of emerging risks, the Voice of America is also citing the movement of as many as 500,000 persons fleeing the fighting in Swat, just one region under contest.

Mass refugee movements are far more disruptive to the efforts of the regular Army than they are to the insurgents... indeed, the Taliban must be pleased with the results of their efforts so far.

As General David Petraeus, Commander of the U.S. Central Command, said last week, the next two weeks are critical to determining whether the Pakistani government will survive... counting from the 30th of April... there is already one week gone on the timer.