Scarborough Shoal (2)

It isn't over.

It isn't even close to over.

It might get worse.

Grammaticas on China 'Banging the War Drum'.

Key Point:

The odd thing here is that the Philippine navy consists of just one proper ship and that is an ancient US Coast Guard cutter which is hardly a match for China's navy, as this online commentary by "The Comparativist" makes clear.

The Comparativist writes: "I think this is happening because the Philippines is so weak. The Chinese government can beat the war drums all they want, and as loud as they want, and no war is going to happen. It's akin to bullying someone in a wheelchair that you know can't punch back."

...

But there are dangers here too. The president of the Philippines has tweeted this statement this week, making clear that the Philippines believes America will help protect it from any Chinese aggression. So a dispute could lead to a very tense situation.

(original contains several source links)

There is one, and only one, brake on PRChina's ambition in this case, and that is predicated upon something not mentioned above:

It does not matter if the Government of the Philippines believes the U.S.A. will help protect it.

It matters if the Government of the People's Republic of China believes the U.S.A. will help protect the Philippines.

Do they?