It took two years of determined effort, but Viktor Bout is now in U.S. custody.
media reports: The AP via FOXNews; The BBC.
Job well done.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Monday, November 15, 2010
Three places to watch - November edition
There are always places out there hanging on the edge of conflict. Here at CompHyp, I've made it a habit in the past to point them out as the first open-sources (usually minor media reports) come out about them. This is by no means exhaustive, but for now let's live up to that tradition again with Three Places to Watch:
1) Sudan ~ It is voter registration time as of today for the national devolution referendum. This almost didn't happen, but a last minute deal seems to have kept the door open. For the next 17 days registration will compile voter lists all through Sudan that will be used for the 9.January 2011 vote. But to get to this point several side deals have been cut; the matter of contesting the demarcation of Abyei region will be treated with negotiation between the al-Bashir regime (the de jure government; represents the 'North') and the SPLM autonomous area government (the opposition separatists; the 'South') and that is just a recipe for a sellout done out of the media's view. There have also been some (upon examination) absurd claims of military build-ups and border fights along the separation line between North and South this weekend. That being what it is, the real risk is that there *will* be a military build-up as both sides think that a vote in favor of Southern secession will come. So put this on your watch list, but do be careful of breathless panic stories that could be the product of the flame-fanning on both sides.
2) Lebanon ~ The investigation into the Hariri assassination is coming to a close, and it looks like Hezbollah (Hizb' Allah; Party of God; the Iranian-sponsored faction of terrorist and Israel-attacking infamy) is going to get indictments from the Special Tribunal laid on several of their leadership. Hezbollah has angrily denounced that possibility, and says they will not comply. The last time they had a bout of 'non-compliance' they damn near restarted the Lebanese Civil War. If the indictments *are* upon leadership elements of Hezbollah, and there is a will by the State to try and enforce them, Hezbollah will likely start a fight. With someone. Plan for the worst there.
3) Nicaragua ~ Specifically, the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border violation along the San Juan River by Nicaraguan military elements. This is happening now. No, it isn't just a Google Maps error. It is claim jumping of the first order. The problem is made worse by the obvious contempt held by the Nicaraguan military for the Costa Rican Fuerza Pública (Public Force; Police with some paramilitary capability; Costa Rica has no regular army). Costa Rica also has depended in the past on the OAS to provide some amount of diplomatic protection for their interests, but that isn't going to happen if this matter is left in the hands of the current ALBA-influenced leadership at the OAS. Nicaragua under Ortega is proving to be another example that friends-of-Hugo are really bad neighbors. Oddly enough, this is also related to Iranian gamesmanship as they've got interests in their new Atlantic-side port project in Nicaragua and are in bed with the ALBA Chavistas. Potentially a really ugly situation.
1) Sudan ~ It is voter registration time as of today for the national devolution referendum. This almost didn't happen, but a last minute deal seems to have kept the door open. For the next 17 days registration will compile voter lists all through Sudan that will be used for the 9.January 2011 vote. But to get to this point several side deals have been cut; the matter of contesting the demarcation of Abyei region will be treated with negotiation between the al-Bashir regime (the de jure government; represents the 'North') and the SPLM autonomous area government (the opposition separatists; the 'South') and that is just a recipe for a sellout done out of the media's view. There have also been some (upon examination) absurd claims of military build-ups and border fights along the separation line between North and South this weekend. That being what it is, the real risk is that there *will* be a military build-up as both sides think that a vote in favor of Southern secession will come. So put this on your watch list, but do be careful of breathless panic stories that could be the product of the flame-fanning on both sides.
2) Lebanon ~ The investigation into the Hariri assassination is coming to a close, and it looks like Hezbollah (Hizb' Allah; Party of God; the Iranian-sponsored faction of terrorist and Israel-attacking infamy) is going to get indictments from the Special Tribunal laid on several of their leadership. Hezbollah has angrily denounced that possibility, and says they will not comply. The last time they had a bout of 'non-compliance' they damn near restarted the Lebanese Civil War. If the indictments *are* upon leadership elements of Hezbollah, and there is a will by the State to try and enforce them, Hezbollah will likely start a fight. With someone. Plan for the worst there.
3) Nicaragua ~ Specifically, the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border violation along the San Juan River by Nicaraguan military elements. This is happening now. No, it isn't just a Google Maps error. It is claim jumping of the first order. The problem is made worse by the obvious contempt held by the Nicaraguan military for the Costa Rican Fuerza Pública (Public Force; Police with some paramilitary capability; Costa Rica has no regular army). Costa Rica also has depended in the past on the OAS to provide some amount of diplomatic protection for their interests, but that isn't going to happen if this matter is left in the hands of the current ALBA-influenced leadership at the OAS. Nicaragua under Ortega is proving to be another example that friends-of-Hugo are really bad neighbors. Oddly enough, this is also related to Iranian gamesmanship as they've got interests in their new Atlantic-side port project in Nicaragua and are in bed with the ALBA Chavistas. Potentially a really ugly situation.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
APEC Yokohama - Day Two
Okay, it's done.
We get a restatement (The Yokohama Vision) of the goals that haven't been met (The Bogor Goals) with an extended timeline. Goalpost-moving at its finest.
The side meetings had a few more interesting pieces. The big show of the USA-Russia meeting between Presidents Obama and Medvedev has produced the soundbite of the promise that the NewSTART treaty will go before the US Senate in the lame duck session, so that pretty much confirms that the Obama administration is in deep denial as to its current mandate (or lack thereof). But in smaller meetings, some good things did get done of the sort that APEC (and the old G-7 meetings) were pretty good for... invitations to heads of state to visit other member nations are almost always a good thing but are especially good between old foes.
Whether the FTAAP (Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific) really turns into something do-able remains to be seen, but the preliminaries of the TPP (TransPacific Partnership) are promising. Still, APEC finds itself once again wedged between the offical "rounds" of the WTO and the regional agreements like ASEAN's East Asia economic plans. Duplication of effort, or a re-enforcement of the movement? Hard to tell right now. Sadly, the history of APEC says consider what you see an illusion of something actually happening.
APEC. Gareth Evans once called it "four adjectives in search of a noun". More accurately, I propose, is that it is in search of a meaningful effect.
***
Side note: as always, the real thanks need go to the staffers; the "sherpas" of G-8 meetings fame. They get everything they can done before the leaders meet, and more importantly they realize what isn't going to get done and take it off the agenda. But from this outsider's view, APEC Yokohama went as well as probably could be expected. Take a bow, fellows. Most of you put your bosses to shame.
***
We get a restatement (The Yokohama Vision) of the goals that haven't been met (The Bogor Goals) with an extended timeline. Goalpost-moving at its finest.
The side meetings had a few more interesting pieces. The big show of the USA-Russia meeting between Presidents Obama and Medvedev has produced the soundbite of the promise that the NewSTART treaty will go before the US Senate in the lame duck session, so that pretty much confirms that the Obama administration is in deep denial as to its current mandate (or lack thereof). But in smaller meetings, some good things did get done of the sort that APEC (and the old G-7 meetings) were pretty good for... invitations to heads of state to visit other member nations are almost always a good thing but are especially good between old foes.
Whether the FTAAP (Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific) really turns into something do-able remains to be seen, but the preliminaries of the TPP (TransPacific Partnership) are promising. Still, APEC finds itself once again wedged between the offical "rounds" of the WTO and the regional agreements like ASEAN's East Asia economic plans. Duplication of effort, or a re-enforcement of the movement? Hard to tell right now. Sadly, the history of APEC says consider what you see an illusion of something actually happening.
APEC. Gareth Evans once called it "four adjectives in search of a noun". More accurately, I propose, is that it is in search of a meaningful effect.
***
Side note: as always, the real thanks need go to the staffers; the "sherpas" of G-8 meetings fame. They get everything they can done before the leaders meet, and more importantly they realize what isn't going to get done and take it off the agenda. But from this outsider's view, APEC Yokohama went as well as probably could be expected. Take a bow, fellows. Most of you put your bosses to shame.
***
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Aung San Suu Kyi free, at least for now.
I've been asked about the significance of the release from house arrest of Burma's Aung San Suu Kyi today.
The short answer is: that the term of her detention expired and the Junta had not chosen to extend it again, so when the time came, they just picked up the barbed wire barricades and left.
Of course, there is more: that the Myanmar Junta has already dismantled the political party behind Aung San Suu Kyi and just held an exercise in manipulated voting that they called an 'election', resulting in a massive win for the Junta-backed candidates. They didn't extend her detention because... for whatever reasons in their minds, they don't see her as a threat any more. To explain why the Junta thinks that, and maybe why they are wrong, would take a lot more time than I have right now. But I think a close look at the media reports will point you in that same line of understanding. Look for reports on the 'election', on the reformation of 'political parties' under the new rules, and on recent military activities by the Myanmar Junta against ethnic rivals in the countryside. The Junta is more confident domestically than ever, these days.
But like I said above, they might be wrong.
The short answer is: that the term of her detention expired and the Junta had not chosen to extend it again, so when the time came, they just picked up the barbed wire barricades and left.
Of course, there is more: that the Myanmar Junta has already dismantled the political party behind Aung San Suu Kyi and just held an exercise in manipulated voting that they called an 'election', resulting in a massive win for the Junta-backed candidates. They didn't extend her detention because... for whatever reasons in their minds, they don't see her as a threat any more. To explain why the Junta thinks that, and maybe why they are wrong, would take a lot more time than I have right now. But I think a close look at the media reports will point you in that same line of understanding. Look for reports on the 'election', on the reformation of 'political parties' under the new rules, and on recent military activities by the Myanmar Junta against ethnic rivals in the countryside. The Junta is more confident domestically than ever, these days.
But like I said above, they might be wrong.
APEC Yokohama - Day One
When the highlight of the day's reports is the exercise in artistic indulgence that is the "virtual koi pond" in the convention center, you just know that not much good happened.
Just Not Going to End Well Situation: Medvedev spokeswoman Natalya Timakova speaking of the side meeting planned between Russian President Medvedev and Japanese PM Kan about the Northern Territories - "She added that Moscow's position that the disputed islands belong to Russia has not changed." No kidding. After all the other statements, the Vostok military exercises this year focusing on Sakhalin and the nearby possessions, the adoption of a formal Russian position that hostilities in WWII in the Pacific didn't end until September of 1945, and then the Medvedev visit to the occupied islands on November 1st of this year... you'd think it would be pretty obvious at this point. Even the Kan administration is going to come to realize that continuing to do favors for Russia is not buying them anything.
Petty Moment of the Day: US President Obama crying out "Stephen, don't fall in!" while Canadian PM Stephen Harper was looking at the virtual pool. Typical, but still disappointing.
Unsaid, but Lurking: Way too many of the nations surrounding the South China Sea have been nervous for years about the PRC's massive upgrading and enlargement of the PLA-N (their navy). After the events of this year, add Japan and quite possibly the ROK to the "concerned" list. The question is rapidly changing from "should something be said/done?" to "what are we going to say/do?". If that pops out in public statements during this conference, I'd say things could get rather ugly.
Just Not Going to End Well Situation: Medvedev spokeswoman Natalya Timakova speaking of the side meeting planned between Russian President Medvedev and Japanese PM Kan about the Northern Territories - "She added that Moscow's position that the disputed islands belong to Russia has not changed." No kidding. After all the other statements, the Vostok military exercises this year focusing on Sakhalin and the nearby possessions, the adoption of a formal Russian position that hostilities in WWII in the Pacific didn't end until September of 1945, and then the Medvedev visit to the occupied islands on November 1st of this year... you'd think it would be pretty obvious at this point. Even the Kan administration is going to come to realize that continuing to do favors for Russia is not buying them anything.
Petty Moment of the Day: US President Obama crying out "Stephen, don't fall in!" while Canadian PM Stephen Harper was looking at the virtual pool. Typical, but still disappointing.
Unsaid, but Lurking: Way too many of the nations surrounding the South China Sea have been nervous for years about the PRC's massive upgrading and enlargement of the PLA-N (their navy). After the events of this year, add Japan and quite possibly the ROK to the "concerned" list. The question is rapidly changing from "should something be said/done?" to "what are we going to say/do?". If that pops out in public statements during this conference, I'd say things could get rather ugly.
Friday, November 12, 2010
G-20 ...that could have gone better.
Got to watch the road show that is the post-November-2nd American Presidency a bit closer this week. The Ind(ia) and Ind(onesia) legs of the tour went pretty much as expected. The Big Sell in India and the Big MakeNice in Indonesia... both more befitting a Chirac-led French industrial promotion exercise, but mostly positive at least in small ways. But then, the road show got to South Korea for the G-20 round.
Ouch.
Mister Popular is now Mister Not-So-Keen.
It probably would have helped if the U.S. Federal Reserve hadn't been initiating its second round ofwillful devaluation quantitative easing at the same time President Obama was voicing his unhappiness with countries manipulating their currencies. That just didn't go over well at all.
Waving around "trade imbalance" issues at the same time also smacks of a real lack of understanding of the details. Helpful hint: While the PRC is probably the prime example of a country running up a trade advantage by gaming the exchange of its currency (not that the Renminbi is really able to be converted in any free market sense), it might be wise to note that the other big manufacturing-based trade imbalancer is... Germany. Yeah, the same Germany that sits in the middle of the Eurozone. The one where the Euro currency is currently significantly above parity with the US$ in valuation.
All that, and the side discussion about closing the ROK-USA Free Trade Agreement went nowhere.
On the local news front, it should also be noted that Japan did a whole lot of nada about the fact that the major cause of the run up to the en (Yen; JPY) is that the PRC has been shoveling formerly US$ assets into JPY in massive quantities; while there is a certain "safe haven" logic to doing so, the other effect is to undermine any Japanese export advantage to the US market at just the time that the PRC is hoping to move upscale in what it sells. There may be some nemesis being summoned up there, though... with the Renmimbi virtually pegged to the US$, forcing other currencies to appreciate sends echoes through the still-US$-denominated raw materials markets that China depends on to fuel its growth. Still, it all smells of the PRC trying to pass along its bad hand on the US$ to other countries' injury. The Japanese delegation really missed an opportunity to raise the matter where it might be noticed.
G-20 is a wrap. A whole lot of not much good.
Gee, what joy awaits us this weekend at APEC here in Japan, ne?
Ouch.
Mister Popular is now Mister Not-So-Keen.
It probably would have helped if the U.S. Federal Reserve hadn't been initiating its second round of
Waving around "trade imbalance" issues at the same time also smacks of a real lack of understanding of the details. Helpful hint: While the PRC is probably the prime example of a country running up a trade advantage by gaming the exchange of its currency (not that the Renminbi is really able to be converted in any free market sense), it might be wise to note that the other big manufacturing-based trade imbalancer is... Germany. Yeah, the same Germany that sits in the middle of the Eurozone. The one where the Euro currency is currently significantly above parity with the US$ in valuation.
All that, and the side discussion about closing the ROK-USA Free Trade Agreement went nowhere.
On the local news front, it should also be noted that Japan did a whole lot of nada about the fact that the major cause of the run up to the en (Yen; JPY) is that the PRC has been shoveling formerly US$ assets into JPY in massive quantities; while there is a certain "safe haven" logic to doing so, the other effect is to undermine any Japanese export advantage to the US market at just the time that the PRC is hoping to move upscale in what it sells. There may be some nemesis being summoned up there, though... with the Renmimbi virtually pegged to the US$, forcing other currencies to appreciate sends echoes through the still-US$-denominated raw materials markets that China depends on to fuel its growth. Still, it all smells of the PRC trying to pass along its bad hand on the US$ to other countries' injury. The Japanese delegation really missed an opportunity to raise the matter where it might be noticed.
G-20 is a wrap. A whole lot of not much good.
Gee, what joy awaits us this weekend at APEC here in Japan, ne?
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Remembrance
I spent the day 'seeing some old friends', as is my way.
Armistice Day; for Americans, it is also Veteran's Day.
I've been off on other things all summer and autumn. I didn't get to write a thing about all the days worth remembering, this time. Maybe this will have to suffice for them all.
...and fellows, thanks.
I'll be around from now, and will post new discussion threads.
***
Remembrance Day, 2010
Ich hatt' einen Kameraden...
In Flanders fields the poppies blow...
***
Armistice Day; for Americans, it is also Veteran's Day.
I've been off on other things all summer and autumn. I didn't get to write a thing about all the days worth remembering, this time. Maybe this will have to suffice for them all.
...and fellows, thanks.
I'll be around from now, and will post new discussion threads.
***
Remembrance Day, 2010
Ich hatt' einen Kameraden...
In Flanders fields the poppies blow...
***
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